NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KLZK 110559 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1159 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017


Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...



VFR conditions expected through the period. Primarily clear sky
conditions will be seen with light winds overnight. Winds will
increase on Mon...with a dry cold front bringing a wind shift to
NRN terminals by Mon afternoon.



SHORT TERM...Sunday Night through Tuesday Night

Fire danger concerns will continue to be the primary forecast
concern in the short term period...

It`s dry and crispy out there with relative humidity values
struggling to stay in the 20s and 30s, and with little to no cloud
cover, temperatures are soaring into the upper 50s and 60s. At the
1:00 PM hour, winds were generally out of the southwest and ranged
from 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts near 20 to 25 mph.

Winds should weaken as we go into the evening and overnight hours,
but will be short-lived as we head into Monday. With dry air aloft
and strong winds in the mid to upper levels due to a strengthening
pressure gradient ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and
frontal boundary, strong winds will continue to be likely late
Monday morning and afternoon as the boundary layer mixes out. We
could see winds between 10-20 mph with higher gusts around or above
25 mph. Furthermore, temperatures are expected to rise into the
upper 50 to lower 70s with dewpoints staying below 30 degrees
resulting in relative humidity values in the 20s.

These conditions will support the already moderate and high wildfire
danger and therefore, portions of the state could get close to
reaching Red Flag criteria. A Fire Danger statement will continue to
outline to fire danger concerns for Monday, but please stay updated
for any future Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings that may be
issued due to stronger winds or lower RH values.

Tuesday will be much colder than Monday, with highs only reaching
the 40s and 50s. Winds will take on a northerly shift behind the
frontal boundary, and will continue to be strong with speeds between
10 and 15 mph.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday

An upper trough will be over the eastern U.S. to begin the long term
period with an upper ridge over the west. This pattern will continue
through the period. Northwest flow aloft will continue over

Dry weather is expected through most of the long term period. High
pressure will be over Arkansas Wednesday then a weak cold front
moves through the area Thursday. High pressure settles back in
behind the front. Several short waves will rotate through the
northwest flow. There will be a little more moisture to work with by
Saturday night. Will keep the chance of showers for Saturday night
but confidence is decreasing...as less moisture is noted in
the models. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through the long term period.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion